Quarterbacks To Avoid in 2019
It's hard to predict quarterback busts because the truth is, most of them will be fine. It is why fantasy experts all over the industry advocate waiting for your quarterback. Last season, many fantasy owners were disappointed by Kirk Cousins. And finished as the QB 13 fantasy. Not horrible? Despite doing so to his NFL team, Cousins didn't kill your fantasy team. And as long as you didn't take a quarterback in the first five rounds, whoever you drafted probably didn't kill your team. The reason you were disappointed with them is because they were replaceable. Unless you had one of the standout guys, the rest of the quarterbacks were sort of grouped together. The difference between the QB 4 and QB 21 was less than 4 points per game, and less than 1 points between QB 13 and QB 21. Due to the depth at quarterback, there are plenty of guys that will be usable in fantasy, but a lot of them will be replaceable week to week, with better options to stream on the waiver wire. With that in mind, a lot of the guys on this list are guys I expect to have good seasons, and are very safe, but are likely to be guys that can be replaced week to week, and therefore not worth their price.
Baker Mayfield: (ADP: QB 5)
Possibly the saddest story of the 2018 football season, aside from Alshon Jeffery dropping that ball in the NFC Championship, was the end of the Cleveland Browns quarterback drought. It seems like the city of Cleveland finally has finally found their post-Lebron golden boy in the undersized, former Heisman winning quarterback with personality and off the field concerns, Johnny Manziel. Oh, I mean Baker Mayfield. And I like the kid, I really do. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Baker is a solid player, and has a lot of upside, but he isn't elite, at least not yet. Sure, when Kitchens took over last season, Mayfield was phenomenal for a rookie, and a low end QB1 in fantasy, but he still averaged an interception per game. The team will likely run the ball more with a dangerous backfield both literally and figuratively (Sorry, Kareem). With the addition of Odell Beckham Jr, many are expecting Mayfield to make a big jump, but let's not forget Beckham hasn't stayed healthy since 2016. Though Mayfield will be solid this year, with the potential to be great, he is being taken above guys with similar upside, but more proven.
Drew Brees: (ADP: QB 7)
Drew Brees is phenomenal. He is probably the most accurate quarterback I have ever seen. However, last season, for the first time since 2005, he finished with below 4,000 yards. This wasn't at the fault of Brees. With the highest yards per attempt since 2011, and the best interception rate of his career, Brees was extraordinary. However, he threw under 500 times for the first time in his career (seasons with 12 or more games). The days of the 5,000 yards, 40 touchdown shootout Drew Brees are over. With an improved defense, the team is trending more and more run-heavy, which greatly limits his ceiling. Sure, last season he was still the QB 8 in fantasy even with this decrease in volume. However, that was with his highest touchdown rate since 2011, along with a career high 4 rushing touchdowns, making last season likely his ceiling. He is also hard to trust on the road, with half the touchdowns and nearly 500 fewer yards last season when out of New Orleans. Though Brees will likely finish around the top 10, he does not have the ceiling I am looking for, especially at his ADP.
Philip Rivers (ADP: QB 14)
Rivers has been a model of consistency over the past five seasons, with at least 4,200 yards, 28 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and at least three new kids ever year. I mean, birth control is like the Super Bowl to him, in the way that Rivers is never going to get either. That number nine is relevant to fantasy in that Rivers hasn't finished top 9 at the position in points per game since 2013. You know what you are getting from Rivers, he is going to be a borderline top 12 quarterback. However, as we talked about in the intro, that production is replacement level. He finished with 17.8 points per game last season (14th), but there were over 20 quarterbacks that finished with at least 17, making streaming a better option than just starting Rivers. Though he is an extremely safe QB 2, I am aiming for higher upside in this range.
Tom Brady: (ADP: QB 15)
Tom Brady is good at football. Just wanted to say that before I bash his fantasy value this year. Last season, he was 17th among quarterbacks in points per game, and only had three weeks where he finished as a QB1. And he just lost this guy named Rob Gronkowski, who is also good at football. Though the team drafted N'keal Harry in the first round, rookie receivers generally aren't very productive, and they also drafted Damien Harris, hinting at Belicheck's desire to go even more run heavy (and his fetish for boring, reliable running backs). Father time is slowly catching up to Brady, which is somewhat surprising, given that his two fathers, Nick Foles and Eli Manning, are still in the league. Last season was one of the worst in every statistic in his career, including deflated efficiency and attempts, just how Brady likes it. Sure, it's Tom Brady and the Patriots, would I be surprised if Brady put on his infinity gauntlet and snapped away half the NFL and finished the season as the QB1 overall? Not at all, it is actually easy to imagine. Almost as easy as their division. However, in the assumption that Tom Brady is not an alien with super powers, which is like assuming that the Earth is round (crazy, I know), he will be at best a high end QB 2 in fantasy this season. Though being drafted in that range, I want someone with QB1 potential in this range, and in my mortal eyes, Brady no longer has that.
Ben Roethlisberger: (ADP: QB 16)
Big Ben finished in the top 3 among fantasy quarterbacks last season. This came from an absurd, league-leading and top 12 all-time number of pass attempts (675). There is simply no way the Steelers throw at that rate once again. However, my biggest concern for Ben is the loss of Antonio Brown. Aside from the 100 plus receptions, 1200 plus yards, and double digit touchdowns Brown leaves on the table, his value for the offense, and specifically Roethlisberger, cannot be quantified. The chemistry between them is on another level, and Brown got Roethlisberger out of numerous poor situations and decisions last season, and throughout their career. Brown also takes on double or even triple coverage, allowing the rest of the offense more space. If you watch Roethlisberger last season, he was not a good quarterback, often just chucking 50/50 balls up, and trusting his receivers. They also produced a ton for him after the catch. With Brown no longer there, and Juju facing double coverage, the offense should take a massive decline this season.
Baker Mayfield: (ADP: QB 5)
Possibly the saddest story of the 2018 football season, aside from Alshon Jeffery dropping that ball in the NFC Championship, was the end of the Cleveland Browns quarterback drought. It seems like the city of Cleveland finally has finally found their post-Lebron golden boy in the undersized, former Heisman winning quarterback with personality and off the field concerns, Johnny Manziel. Oh, I mean Baker Mayfield. And I like the kid, I really do. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Baker is a solid player, and has a lot of upside, but he isn't elite, at least not yet. Sure, when Kitchens took over last season, Mayfield was phenomenal for a rookie, and a low end QB1 in fantasy, but he still averaged an interception per game. The team will likely run the ball more with a dangerous backfield both literally and figuratively (Sorry, Kareem). With the addition of Odell Beckham Jr, many are expecting Mayfield to make a big jump, but let's not forget Beckham hasn't stayed healthy since 2016. Though Mayfield will be solid this year, with the potential to be great, he is being taken above guys with similar upside, but more proven.
Drew Brees: (ADP: QB 7)
Drew Brees is phenomenal. He is probably the most accurate quarterback I have ever seen. However, last season, for the first time since 2005, he finished with below 4,000 yards. This wasn't at the fault of Brees. With the highest yards per attempt since 2011, and the best interception rate of his career, Brees was extraordinary. However, he threw under 500 times for the first time in his career (seasons with 12 or more games). The days of the 5,000 yards, 40 touchdown shootout Drew Brees are over. With an improved defense, the team is trending more and more run-heavy, which greatly limits his ceiling. Sure, last season he was still the QB 8 in fantasy even with this decrease in volume. However, that was with his highest touchdown rate since 2011, along with a career high 4 rushing touchdowns, making last season likely his ceiling. He is also hard to trust on the road, with half the touchdowns and nearly 500 fewer yards last season when out of New Orleans. Though Brees will likely finish around the top 10, he does not have the ceiling I am looking for, especially at his ADP.
Philip Rivers (ADP: QB 14)
Rivers has been a model of consistency over the past five seasons, with at least 4,200 yards, 28 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and at least three new kids ever year. I mean, birth control is like the Super Bowl to him, in the way that Rivers is never going to get either. That number nine is relevant to fantasy in that Rivers hasn't finished top 9 at the position in points per game since 2013. You know what you are getting from Rivers, he is going to be a borderline top 12 quarterback. However, as we talked about in the intro, that production is replacement level. He finished with 17.8 points per game last season (14th), but there were over 20 quarterbacks that finished with at least 17, making streaming a better option than just starting Rivers. Though he is an extremely safe QB 2, I am aiming for higher upside in this range.
Tom Brady: (ADP: QB 15)
Tom Brady is good at football. Just wanted to say that before I bash his fantasy value this year. Last season, he was 17th among quarterbacks in points per game, and only had three weeks where he finished as a QB1. And he just lost this guy named Rob Gronkowski, who is also good at football. Though the team drafted N'keal Harry in the first round, rookie receivers generally aren't very productive, and they also drafted Damien Harris, hinting at Belicheck's desire to go even more run heavy (and his fetish for boring, reliable running backs). Father time is slowly catching up to Brady, which is somewhat surprising, given that his two fathers, Nick Foles and Eli Manning, are still in the league. Last season was one of the worst in every statistic in his career, including deflated efficiency and attempts, just how Brady likes it. Sure, it's Tom Brady and the Patriots, would I be surprised if Brady put on his infinity gauntlet and snapped away half the NFL and finished the season as the QB1 overall? Not at all, it is actually easy to imagine. Almost as easy as their division. However, in the assumption that Tom Brady is not an alien with super powers, which is like assuming that the Earth is round (crazy, I know), he will be at best a high end QB 2 in fantasy this season. Though being drafted in that range, I want someone with QB1 potential in this range, and in my mortal eyes, Brady no longer has that.
Ben Roethlisberger: (ADP: QB 16)
Big Ben finished in the top 3 among fantasy quarterbacks last season. This came from an absurd, league-leading and top 12 all-time number of pass attempts (675). There is simply no way the Steelers throw at that rate once again. However, my biggest concern for Ben is the loss of Antonio Brown. Aside from the 100 plus receptions, 1200 plus yards, and double digit touchdowns Brown leaves on the table, his value for the offense, and specifically Roethlisberger, cannot be quantified. The chemistry between them is on another level, and Brown got Roethlisberger out of numerous poor situations and decisions last season, and throughout their career. Brown also takes on double or even triple coverage, allowing the rest of the offense more space. If you watch Roethlisberger last season, he was not a good quarterback, often just chucking 50/50 balls up, and trusting his receivers. They also produced a ton for him after the catch. With Brown no longer there, and Juju facing double coverage, the offense should take a massive decline this season.
