Quarterbacks To Target in 2019
Last season, the top three fantasy finishers at quarterback were all drafted outside of the top 12. Few predicted that Patrick Mahomes would have a higher completion percentage with his left hand than Tom Brady with his right, that choking a 28-3 lead would not forever end Matt Ryan's fantasy relevance, or that Ben Roethlisberger would continually force the ball into places. Though, to be fair, given the history of Big Ben, we should have seen the third one coming. It is no secret in the fantasy world that there is value to be had with late round quarterbacks. I mean, Ryan Fitzpatrick led the league in fantasy points over the first three weeks of the season, and Nathan Peterman provided tons of fantasy points to opposing defenses in his two weeks as a starter. In the modern NFL, with teams play-calling like they're the Seahawks in the Super Bowl at the two yard line, plenty of quarterbacks will provide fantasy value. With that in mind, here are the guys I am targeting at their current ADP.
Carson Wentz (ADP: QB 8)
Ok, I have to preface this by saying I am an Eagles fan, or shall I say fan of the GREATEST FRANCHISE IN THE HISTORY OF SPORTS. So, similar to how the Patriots success has a slight dose of cheating, this analysis may have a slight dose of homerism. Similar to Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz was playing injured for the whole season, clearly not fully healed from his ACL. Yet, he still improved his game in terms of yards per attempt and completion percentage before going down with a broken back. Though his back injury could carry over to this season, all reports out of mini camp were glowing, and the letting go of Nick Foles and long-term extension of Carson Wentz shows confidence that the injury is nothing serious. So, let's do what any good Eagles fan would do, and flashback to the 2017 season, where Wentz was the MVP favorite before tearing his ACL, and in case you guys forgot, Nick Foles leading the Eagles to Super Bowl glory. Wentz was a top 3 fantasy option, and his weapons have only improved. If Wentz stays healthy, and gets his rushing back, he has a realistic chance to lead the league in fantasy points. Yes, I am a homer, but at least I'm not a Cowboys fan, am I right?
Jameis Winston (ADP: QB 13)
You don't always have to be good at something to succeed, you just have to be in the right place. Just ask anyone who takes the seat next to the smartest kid in the class on the day of the math final. Winston is not an elite NFL quarterback, but he is in the ideal place for fantasy stardom. First of all, he has been solid for fantasy in the past. Since the start of 2018, Winston has the highest percentage of 300 plus yard games among quarterbacks with 20 or more starts. Similar to his former teammate and GOAT Ryan Fitzpatrick (learning from the best), Winston throws the ball deep, finishing 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd in average depth of target (aDOT) over the past three seasons. New head coach Bruce Arians is famous for his "No risk it, no biscuit" approach to play-calling, which goes well with Winston's "F*ck it, just chuck it" approach to playing quarterback. Arians style has made guys like Carson Palmer fantasy relevant in the past. With elite weapons, an atrocious defense, and his NFL career on the line, Winston's fantasy production will be like the Patriots super bowl victory last season, definitely not pretty, but gets the job done.
Dak Prescott (ADP: QB 17)
Just to prove am not that much of a homer, the Cowboys Dak Prescott is also a great value this season. In all seriousness, Dak has been a QB1 every year in his career, and after gaining Amari Cooper, was top 6 last season. He also has at least six rushing touchdowns in every season of his career, giving him a great floor. With his combined rushing and passing ability, Dak doesn't have to improve at all to be a steal in drafts, but as we saw last season, he has borderline top 5 upside as well. He also gives you a lot of options for stellar team names, which is what fantasy football is really about, let's be honest. "Dak and Cheese", "Orange is the new Dak", "Dak in a box", the list goes on...
Jimmy Garoppolo (ADP: QB 18)
Extraordinarily handsome. Big arm. Extremely likable. These are just some of the traits Jimmy G and I share. However, unlike me, Garoppolo was on pace for just under 5,000 yards when starting in 2017, and was being drafted as a borderline top 10 quarterback for fantasy in 2018. Though slightly disappointing before injury last season, that was an extremely small sample size. With a young group of talented weapons like George Kittle, Dante Pettis, and Deebo Samuel, Garoppolo maintains that elite passing upside. Though the lack of rushing limits his ceiling, an improved touchdown rate, another year with Kyle Shanahan, and better weapons should offset that.
Josh Allen (ADP: QB 21)
Remember what I said earlier about Jameis Winston? It's gonna be ugly, and this time I mean like don't even watch ugly, but Josh Allen could be great in fantasy this season. While Vontae Davis retiring at halftime was the most memorable part of the Bills 2018 season, Josh Allen notably had a five game stretch where he was 2nd in fantasy points among quarterbacks. His rushing ability and big arm can lead him to fantasy success despite not being able to throw the ball six yards to an open receiver. The Bills improved their weapons, and though bringing in running backs, will be forced to pass the ball due to game script. Allen is not someone to be comfortable with on a week to week basis, but at his price, his massive ceiling makes him worth the risk.
Mitchell Trubisky (ADP: QB 22)
Trubisky is the poster-boy for the "wait for a quarterback" strategy in 2019. Last season, despite being a 2nd year quarterback, in a new offense, with completely new weapons, Trubisky finished top ten among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. That was above guys like Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Philip Rivers, who are all being drafted ahead of him. While all those guys could go down, there is no place but up for Trubisky. The Bears defense was amazing last season, and as we have seen with elite defenses in the past (Jaguars 2017, Vikings 2016), they are unlikely to maintain that level of success. Trubisky should therefore see slightly more favorable game scripts this season. He is also now in the 2nd year with Matt Nagy, Allen Robinson is more than a year removed from his ACL, and Anthony Miller will most likely not separate his shoulder every other week this season. With the opportunity to improve through the air, and a stable, underrated rushing floor, don't be surprised if Trubisky repeats as a top 10 option with the potential for more.
Carson Wentz (ADP: QB 8)
Ok, I have to preface this by saying I am an Eagles fan, or shall I say fan of the GREATEST FRANCHISE IN THE HISTORY OF SPORTS. So, similar to how the Patriots success has a slight dose of cheating, this analysis may have a slight dose of homerism. Similar to Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz was playing injured for the whole season, clearly not fully healed from his ACL. Yet, he still improved his game in terms of yards per attempt and completion percentage before going down with a broken back. Though his back injury could carry over to this season, all reports out of mini camp were glowing, and the letting go of Nick Foles and long-term extension of Carson Wentz shows confidence that the injury is nothing serious. So, let's do what any good Eagles fan would do, and flashback to the 2017 season, where Wentz was the MVP favorite before tearing his ACL, and in case you guys forgot, Nick Foles leading the Eagles to Super Bowl glory. Wentz was a top 3 fantasy option, and his weapons have only improved. If Wentz stays healthy, and gets his rushing back, he has a realistic chance to lead the league in fantasy points. Yes, I am a homer, but at least I'm not a Cowboys fan, am I right?
Jameis Winston (ADP: QB 13)
You don't always have to be good at something to succeed, you just have to be in the right place. Just ask anyone who takes the seat next to the smartest kid in the class on the day of the math final. Winston is not an elite NFL quarterback, but he is in the ideal place for fantasy stardom. First of all, he has been solid for fantasy in the past. Since the start of 2018, Winston has the highest percentage of 300 plus yard games among quarterbacks with 20 or more starts. Similar to his former teammate and GOAT Ryan Fitzpatrick (learning from the best), Winston throws the ball deep, finishing 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd in average depth of target (aDOT) over the past three seasons. New head coach Bruce Arians is famous for his "No risk it, no biscuit" approach to play-calling, which goes well with Winston's "F*ck it, just chuck it" approach to playing quarterback. Arians style has made guys like Carson Palmer fantasy relevant in the past. With elite weapons, an atrocious defense, and his NFL career on the line, Winston's fantasy production will be like the Patriots super bowl victory last season, definitely not pretty, but gets the job done.
Dak Prescott (ADP: QB 17)
Just to prove am not that much of a homer, the Cowboys Dak Prescott is also a great value this season. In all seriousness, Dak has been a QB1 every year in his career, and after gaining Amari Cooper, was top 6 last season. He also has at least six rushing touchdowns in every season of his career, giving him a great floor. With his combined rushing and passing ability, Dak doesn't have to improve at all to be a steal in drafts, but as we saw last season, he has borderline top 5 upside as well. He also gives you a lot of options for stellar team names, which is what fantasy football is really about, let's be honest. "Dak and Cheese", "Orange is the new Dak", "Dak in a box", the list goes on...
Jimmy Garoppolo (ADP: QB 18)
Extraordinarily handsome. Big arm. Extremely likable. These are just some of the traits Jimmy G and I share. However, unlike me, Garoppolo was on pace for just under 5,000 yards when starting in 2017, and was being drafted as a borderline top 10 quarterback for fantasy in 2018. Though slightly disappointing before injury last season, that was an extremely small sample size. With a young group of talented weapons like George Kittle, Dante Pettis, and Deebo Samuel, Garoppolo maintains that elite passing upside. Though the lack of rushing limits his ceiling, an improved touchdown rate, another year with Kyle Shanahan, and better weapons should offset that.
Josh Allen (ADP: QB 21)
Remember what I said earlier about Jameis Winston? It's gonna be ugly, and this time I mean like don't even watch ugly, but Josh Allen could be great in fantasy this season. While Vontae Davis retiring at halftime was the most memorable part of the Bills 2018 season, Josh Allen notably had a five game stretch where he was 2nd in fantasy points among quarterbacks. His rushing ability and big arm can lead him to fantasy success despite not being able to throw the ball six yards to an open receiver. The Bills improved their weapons, and though bringing in running backs, will be forced to pass the ball due to game script. Allen is not someone to be comfortable with on a week to week basis, but at his price, his massive ceiling makes him worth the risk.
Mitchell Trubisky (ADP: QB 22)
Trubisky is the poster-boy for the "wait for a quarterback" strategy in 2019. Last season, despite being a 2nd year quarterback, in a new offense, with completely new weapons, Trubisky finished top ten among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. That was above guys like Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Philip Rivers, who are all being drafted ahead of him. While all those guys could go down, there is no place but up for Trubisky. The Bears defense was amazing last season, and as we have seen with elite defenses in the past (Jaguars 2017, Vikings 2016), they are unlikely to maintain that level of success. Trubisky should therefore see slightly more favorable game scripts this season. He is also now in the 2nd year with Matt Nagy, Allen Robinson is more than a year removed from his ACL, and Anthony Miller will most likely not separate his shoulder every other week this season. With the opportunity to improve through the air, and a stable, underrated rushing floor, don't be surprised if Trubisky repeats as a top 10 option with the potential for more.
