Receiving situations to avoid in the mid to late rounds
“Someone has to get targets/yards/fantasy points, RIGHT?” This reasoning is used as justification by many who attempt to find fantasy value in depleted receiving cores. However, it couldn’t be farther from the truth. The idea that every team has to have fantasy producers at wide receiver, or even any position, is a common misconception that wastes many fantasy owners late round picks. Though every team generally has one guy who produces for at least a couple weeks throughout the season, if these weeks occur randomly, they are useless for your fantasy teams. There are plenty of guys that will be available on waivers that "could" produce on any given week. With late draft picks, you are looking for receivers that could break out, and be trusted as a weekly fill in or even starter for your lineup.
Tyler Boyd, Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, Mike Williams, Kenny Golladay, and Tyler Lockett. Last season, these receivers were all drafted outside of the top 40, and finished in the top 24 in PPR scoring. However, they were not just WR2s in fantasy, but also second fiddle on their team as well, or at least drafted as such. Though Golladay and Lockett would eventually be the lead receiver for their team, the others all had start-worthy fantasy production, even as the second options on their teams. On the contrary, Corey Davis, Sterling Shepard, Dede Westbrook, Allen Robinson, and Larry Fitzgerald were all the lead receivers for their team, but were WR3s or worse.The point is, you would rather have a smaller portion of the winning pie than a larger part of the losing one. The second options on better offenses are significantly more valuable than the number one on poor passing offenses, and therefore more likely to pan out as late round fliers. So, unless a team has a clear No.1, spend your late round receiver picks on guys who could overtake the lead guy, like Anthony Miller or Curtis Samuel, or guys who could be the No.2 on superior passing offenses like James Washington, Will Fuller V or Geronimo Allison.
Tyler Boyd, Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, Mike Williams, Kenny Golladay, and Tyler Lockett. Last season, these receivers were all drafted outside of the top 40, and finished in the top 24 in PPR scoring. However, they were not just WR2s in fantasy, but also second fiddle on their team as well, or at least drafted as such. Though Golladay and Lockett would eventually be the lead receiver for their team, the others all had start-worthy fantasy production, even as the second options on their teams. On the contrary, Corey Davis, Sterling Shepard, Dede Westbrook, Allen Robinson, and Larry Fitzgerald were all the lead receivers for their team, but were WR3s or worse.The point is, you would rather have a smaller portion of the winning pie than a larger part of the losing one. The second options on better offenses are significantly more valuable than the number one on poor passing offenses, and therefore more likely to pan out as late round fliers. So, unless a team has a clear No.1, spend your late round receiver picks on guys who could overtake the lead guy, like Anthony Miller or Curtis Samuel, or guys who could be the No.2 on superior passing offenses like James Washington, Will Fuller V or Geronimo Allison.
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The receiver situations to avoid are largely characterized by three things.
1. There is little passing volume.
2. The passing game is inefficient.
3. There is no clear target leader at receiver, or the leader comes from another position.
These offenses can become a dumpster fire or wasteland for fantasy receivers, and not something you want to spend a pick on.
I have classified receivers that finished in the top 48, or as a WR4, as “worth” a roster spot, though many of them still were not someone you would be happy with drafting. Let’s take a look at the three teams that featured no roster-worthy receivers last season.
Redskins: The Redskins passing attack struggled, to put it nicely, last season. Though competent NFL quarterback Alex Smith played ten games, the other six games saw three different starters, who all classify under the Browns first round pick level of NFL quarterbacks. Washington finished 26th in the league in passing volume, 28th in yards per attempt, and tied for 28th with 16 touchdowns through the air. What made their receiving core even more atrocious was that targets and specifically, touchdowns were extremely spread out. Five players recorded at least two receiving touchdowns, but zero recorded three. The tight end, Jordan Reed, had the greatest share of the team's passing yards.
Dolphins: With “perpetually injured” Ryan Tannehill once again sidelined, Mr. 72 million dollar contract Brock Osweiler stepped in for five games. Neither quarterback was particularly productive, averaging less than 200 yards per game. Under “somehow still a head coach” Adam Gase, the team ran a league low in plays, and was third to last in pass attempts. Though the team was 19th in yards per attempt, and 17th in touchdowns through the air, their leader in targets was running back Kenyan Drake. Drake also had five of the team's receiving touchdowns. The remaining yards were split among four receivers, preventing any from posting usable fantasy numbers.
49ers: After quarterback Jimmy Handsome was sidelined in week three, the team relied on C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens throughout the rest of the year. The team was 20th in passing attempts, and a shocking eighth in passing yards per attempt. There was one slight problem for the team's receivers. That problem was a man, or more accurately, a beast, named George Kittle. The star tight end accounted for over a third of the team's yards, and left scraps for the rest of the receivers. If not for Kittle, the team would have ranked among the bottom of the league in all passing stats. Though Dante Pettis had a relevant stretch in fantasy, he was not someone to rely on throughout the season.
So, which teams should you avoid this year? Please note, the reason for this article is to show guys who can consistently be started are much more likely to come from high passing volume offenses. For this purpose, I have made two categories. The first is receiving cores I believe will not produce ANY usable fantasy options at wide receiver. The second is receiving cores that I believe have a solid chance of producing a WR3 or WR4, but the uncertainty on who it will be and lack of WR2 upside makes other options more appealing.
Category 1: Avoid at all costs
Redskins: The Redskins once again are likely to have no usable fantasy receivers this season. With two new quarterbacks, veteran Case Keenum and rookie Dwayne Haskins, it is possible that the team is slightly more efficient through the air, but not likely. Also, with the return of Derrius Guice, and resigning of Adrian Peterson, the team is likely to have similar if not lower passing volume. There were no new acquisitions to the receiving core that spark fantasy interest, so Josh Doctson, who again finished as WR70 last season, or Paul Richardson, is still their No.1 receiver. It is likely their top two pass-catchers are tight end Jordan Reed and running back Chris Thompson, and therefore no receivers should be drafted.
Ravens: After rookie Lamar Jackson took over in week 10 for the elite Joe Flacco, the team lost nearly half of its passing volume. With Jackson at the helm, the team implemented a run-heavy approach, and no receiver finished within the top 50 in fantasy. The Ravens went 6-1 over this stretch, and their moves this offseason show they are committed to this run first offense. The team let John Brown and Michael Crabtree go, brought in veteran back Mark Ingram, and drafted running back Justice Hill. Though the team drafted speedy receiver Marquise Brown, it is unlikely he provides significant rookie year fantasy value, especially in this low passing volume offense. Therefore, the Ravens receivers should be avoided in almost all fantasy drafts.
Category 2: Unpredictable but worth consideration
Broncos: While on the topic of the former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco, the veteran found a new home in Denver. Though general manager John Elway has been saying that Flacco is in his prime, that is hard to believe given the man is 34 years old, lost his job to a rookie who can't throw, and runs like a snail. Though Flacco has had usable receivers in the past, (John Brown was a WR2 when Flacco was the starter last year) the team looks to be run heavy with the dual attack of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. We are also unsure who their No.1 receiver is, with Courtland Sutton, Dasean Hamilton, and Emmanuel Sanders. If one of the three emerges, it is very possible they are a valuable fantasy asset. However, with rookie tight end Noah Fant also likely to take targets, it is more likely none of the three receivers establish themselves as the clear No.1, and in what is likely to be a low passing Broncos offense, a clear No.1 is needed for fantasy value. Though Sutton and Hamilton probably should be drafted, I prefer other options where they are currently going.
Jaguars: From one Super Bowl MVP to another, Nick Foles also has a new home in Jacksonville this season. Though Foles is an improvement over Blake Bortles as an NFL quarterback, it is unlikely he significantly improves the team's offense from a fantasy perspective. Foles likes to spread the ball around, and the team is still likely to be the most run heavy in the league. Though Dede Westbrook did finish as a WR4 last season, the change in quarterback does not necessarily help Dede. With the return of Marqise Lee, who is probably equivalent as a receiver to Westbrook, it is likely that Dede's volume decreases. The emergence of other options like DJ Chark, Keelan Cole, and Chris Conley, along with Foles inability to sustain a WR2 throughout his career, limits the upside for all pass-catchers. Though Dede is still worth a draft pick, I would pivot elsewhere, especially at his current ADP.
Others Receiving Votes: One of the most unpredictable receiving cores is the Bills. With the emergence of quarterback Josh Allen, both Zay Jones and Robert Foster shined as WR2’s for consecutive weeks. They also brought in John Brown and Cole Beasley in the offseason. Though it is unclear who will lead the team in targets, the massive upside presented by Josh Allen’s gun-slinging nature for deep threats Brown and Foster make them worth late round fliers. I would favor Brown given his history of production, especially on deep balls. Speaking of gunslinging quarterbacks, the Dolphins brought in the GOAT Ryan Fitzpatrick along with second year quarterback Josh Rosen. Though we don’t know who will be the starter, the Dolphins have three receivers that could break through, Albert Wilson, Kenny Stills, and Devante Parker. For me, Parker and Wilson are both interesting late round fliers. Though we have been waiting for Parker’s breakout for as long as we have been waiting for the Cowboys to make a playoff run, both to no avail (sorry, I’m an Eagles fan), the former first round pick once again presents massive upside. Though his career has bust written all over it, especially from fantasy owners, he has been productive when healthy (higher yards per target than Antonio Brown last season), and the new quarterback and offensive coordinator (no one likes Adam Gase) could provide the change of scenery he needs. I am not banking on a massive year for Parker, but though it sounds redundant, the upside is worth the price you have to pay. Though I prefer Parker to Wilson, the slot receiver showed potential in stretches last season, and if Rosen becomes the starter, he could lean towards Wilson in the short to intermediate game.
1. There is little passing volume.
2. The passing game is inefficient.
3. There is no clear target leader at receiver, or the leader comes from another position.
These offenses can become a dumpster fire or wasteland for fantasy receivers, and not something you want to spend a pick on.
I have classified receivers that finished in the top 48, or as a WR4, as “worth” a roster spot, though many of them still were not someone you would be happy with drafting. Let’s take a look at the three teams that featured no roster-worthy receivers last season.
Redskins: The Redskins passing attack struggled, to put it nicely, last season. Though competent NFL quarterback Alex Smith played ten games, the other six games saw three different starters, who all classify under the Browns first round pick level of NFL quarterbacks. Washington finished 26th in the league in passing volume, 28th in yards per attempt, and tied for 28th with 16 touchdowns through the air. What made their receiving core even more atrocious was that targets and specifically, touchdowns were extremely spread out. Five players recorded at least two receiving touchdowns, but zero recorded three. The tight end, Jordan Reed, had the greatest share of the team's passing yards.
Dolphins: With “perpetually injured” Ryan Tannehill once again sidelined, Mr. 72 million dollar contract Brock Osweiler stepped in for five games. Neither quarterback was particularly productive, averaging less than 200 yards per game. Under “somehow still a head coach” Adam Gase, the team ran a league low in plays, and was third to last in pass attempts. Though the team was 19th in yards per attempt, and 17th in touchdowns through the air, their leader in targets was running back Kenyan Drake. Drake also had five of the team's receiving touchdowns. The remaining yards were split among four receivers, preventing any from posting usable fantasy numbers.
49ers: After quarterback Jimmy Handsome was sidelined in week three, the team relied on C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens throughout the rest of the year. The team was 20th in passing attempts, and a shocking eighth in passing yards per attempt. There was one slight problem for the team's receivers. That problem was a man, or more accurately, a beast, named George Kittle. The star tight end accounted for over a third of the team's yards, and left scraps for the rest of the receivers. If not for Kittle, the team would have ranked among the bottom of the league in all passing stats. Though Dante Pettis had a relevant stretch in fantasy, he was not someone to rely on throughout the season.
So, which teams should you avoid this year? Please note, the reason for this article is to show guys who can consistently be started are much more likely to come from high passing volume offenses. For this purpose, I have made two categories. The first is receiving cores I believe will not produce ANY usable fantasy options at wide receiver. The second is receiving cores that I believe have a solid chance of producing a WR3 or WR4, but the uncertainty on who it will be and lack of WR2 upside makes other options more appealing.
Category 1: Avoid at all costs
Redskins: The Redskins once again are likely to have no usable fantasy receivers this season. With two new quarterbacks, veteran Case Keenum and rookie Dwayne Haskins, it is possible that the team is slightly more efficient through the air, but not likely. Also, with the return of Derrius Guice, and resigning of Adrian Peterson, the team is likely to have similar if not lower passing volume. There were no new acquisitions to the receiving core that spark fantasy interest, so Josh Doctson, who again finished as WR70 last season, or Paul Richardson, is still their No.1 receiver. It is likely their top two pass-catchers are tight end Jordan Reed and running back Chris Thompson, and therefore no receivers should be drafted.
Ravens: After rookie Lamar Jackson took over in week 10 for the elite Joe Flacco, the team lost nearly half of its passing volume. With Jackson at the helm, the team implemented a run-heavy approach, and no receiver finished within the top 50 in fantasy. The Ravens went 6-1 over this stretch, and their moves this offseason show they are committed to this run first offense. The team let John Brown and Michael Crabtree go, brought in veteran back Mark Ingram, and drafted running back Justice Hill. Though the team drafted speedy receiver Marquise Brown, it is unlikely he provides significant rookie year fantasy value, especially in this low passing volume offense. Therefore, the Ravens receivers should be avoided in almost all fantasy drafts.
Category 2: Unpredictable but worth consideration
Broncos: While on the topic of the former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco, the veteran found a new home in Denver. Though general manager John Elway has been saying that Flacco is in his prime, that is hard to believe given the man is 34 years old, lost his job to a rookie who can't throw, and runs like a snail. Though Flacco has had usable receivers in the past, (John Brown was a WR2 when Flacco was the starter last year) the team looks to be run heavy with the dual attack of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. We are also unsure who their No.1 receiver is, with Courtland Sutton, Dasean Hamilton, and Emmanuel Sanders. If one of the three emerges, it is very possible they are a valuable fantasy asset. However, with rookie tight end Noah Fant also likely to take targets, it is more likely none of the three receivers establish themselves as the clear No.1, and in what is likely to be a low passing Broncos offense, a clear No.1 is needed for fantasy value. Though Sutton and Hamilton probably should be drafted, I prefer other options where they are currently going.
Jaguars: From one Super Bowl MVP to another, Nick Foles also has a new home in Jacksonville this season. Though Foles is an improvement over Blake Bortles as an NFL quarterback, it is unlikely he significantly improves the team's offense from a fantasy perspective. Foles likes to spread the ball around, and the team is still likely to be the most run heavy in the league. Though Dede Westbrook did finish as a WR4 last season, the change in quarterback does not necessarily help Dede. With the return of Marqise Lee, who is probably equivalent as a receiver to Westbrook, it is likely that Dede's volume decreases. The emergence of other options like DJ Chark, Keelan Cole, and Chris Conley, along with Foles inability to sustain a WR2 throughout his career, limits the upside for all pass-catchers. Though Dede is still worth a draft pick, I would pivot elsewhere, especially at his current ADP.
Others Receiving Votes: One of the most unpredictable receiving cores is the Bills. With the emergence of quarterback Josh Allen, both Zay Jones and Robert Foster shined as WR2’s for consecutive weeks. They also brought in John Brown and Cole Beasley in the offseason. Though it is unclear who will lead the team in targets, the massive upside presented by Josh Allen’s gun-slinging nature for deep threats Brown and Foster make them worth late round fliers. I would favor Brown given his history of production, especially on deep balls. Speaking of gunslinging quarterbacks, the Dolphins brought in the GOAT Ryan Fitzpatrick along with second year quarterback Josh Rosen. Though we don’t know who will be the starter, the Dolphins have three receivers that could break through, Albert Wilson, Kenny Stills, and Devante Parker. For me, Parker and Wilson are both interesting late round fliers. Though we have been waiting for Parker’s breakout for as long as we have been waiting for the Cowboys to make a playoff run, both to no avail (sorry, I’m an Eagles fan), the former first round pick once again presents massive upside. Though his career has bust written all over it, especially from fantasy owners, he has been productive when healthy (higher yards per target than Antonio Brown last season), and the new quarterback and offensive coordinator (no one likes Adam Gase) could provide the change of scenery he needs. I am not banking on a massive year for Parker, but though it sounds redundant, the upside is worth the price you have to pay. Though I prefer Parker to Wilson, the slot receiver showed potential in stretches last season, and if Rosen becomes the starter, he could lean towards Wilson in the short to intermediate game.
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