Why elite running backs should be your first priority come draft day
Please note the following is for 12 team, PPR leagues, but can apply to any league.
Three things are certain in life. Death, taxes, and elite running backs win fantasy championships. Six of the eight players most commonly on playoff rosters in fantasy were running backs. That does not mean it is impossible to win without one, or that you should spend all of your top picks on the position. It is just something to note when considering draft strategy.
So, first we must define what an elite running back is. Some say it is a “workhorse” back who gets all their teams carries and touches, but that doesn’t always apply. Just look at David Johnson last year, who surpassed 300 touches, but didn’t deliver that elite fantasy production you were looking for, averaging only fourteen points per game in half point per reception leagues. For me, an elite running back is one of those guys that you can count on for twenty points every week. There were eight running backs who achieved this average, or just below, last season, five of which played at least fourteen games. These were the “elite” backs you should be looking for throughout your whole draft.
The reason for their value is not the consistency or number of points, as quarterbacks surpass them in both categories. The reason is in the depth of the position. Having an elite running back gives you a significant weekly edge over an opponent, more so than an elite quarterback or wide receiver does. For example, the top quarterbacks last year in terms of start percentage (the percentage of time the player finished the week worth the start) were Patrick Mahomes (75%), Andrew Luck (68%) and Deshaun Watson (62%). At wide receiver, following Davante Adams at (87.5%), no one had above 75%. However the “elite” running backs nearly always are “worth the start”. Saquon Barkley and Christian Mccaffrey led the way (93.8%), with Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, and Alvin Kamara all above 80 percent, and along with Melvin Gordon (who would have surpassed 80 percent if not for injury), made up the elite tier of running backs last season. So, according to Matthew Berry, “At a fundamental level, the key to fantasy football success is minimizing risk on a weekly basis to give you the best odds to win,” and elite running backs are most greatly minimizing risk by finishing as starters nearly every week. The reason these running backs consistently finish at the top of their position is largely due to the lack of production around them. For an example, if you had the worse starting running back duo in a 12 team league (RB 23 and 24 in points per game), you would get about 26 points a week from the duo. Todd Gurley alone would have outscored the duo on a weekly basis. If you try the same with the receiver position, the 23rd and 24th receivers would have outscored the No.1 receiver by 8 points, showing the greater advantage your team gets from an elite back. To add to the value of the top running backs, there was a significant drop off after RB8 in pointer per game Kareem Huny, who finished with 20.9 PPR points per game, while RB9 Joe Mixon averaged just 17.4, a 3.5 point tier dropoff.
So, we have determined that having an elite running back is the most valuable thing you can have, so how you take that into account on draft day is up to you. As I said earlier, you do not need to draft a running back in the first round to get an elite one, nor do you even need an elite one to win. This philosophy is seen to a more extreme degree in the Zero RB strategy. The strategy focuses on building up wide receiver and getting an elite tight end in the early rounds. The idea stems from the fact that elite running backs are often hit or miss, as over the last ten seasons fewer than two of the previous season’s top 5 RBs finished in the top five the following year. Due to injuries and dependence on the rest of the offense, running backs are often difficult to predict, and the Zero RB strategy exploits this, allowing others to take the lottery ticket of an early running back, and instead taking more safe receivers. However, this strategy requires more skill and research. The strategy relies on you hitting on your late round fliers, coming away with steals like Nick Chubb, and James White last year, or Alvin Kamara the year before. For this year, I would target a combination of high upside backs who could get the starting job, like Carlos Hyde or Devin Singletary, with dependable pass-catching backs like Nyheim Hines or Jalen Richard, to ensure some safety at the position. It also requires activity on the waiver wire, as you will need the Phillip Lindsay’s of the world from last season. Overall, the strategy can have massive rewards, but comes at a major risk, and requires you to be researched and active throughout the year.
Another option is the opposite of this, considering the importance of the position, and therefore building up on it. Having an elite running back is the easiest route to success in fantasy, so why not take two or three shots at it in the early rounds. As explained earlier, there is risk in this strategy, but chances are you will get at least a solid starting running back tandem, and will not be left with scraps at the position. If choosing this strategy, develop a tiered running back ranking for the early rounds, and make sure you have receivers you like later in the draft.
Finally, there’s how I draft in general in fantasy, which is in the first four rounds, I will always take the best player available, regardless of position. Due to their importance, running backs are a priority in the first round, but I am willing to take a receiver if my top backs are off the board. In general though, my strategy for drafting running backs depends on the round. In the first round, I am not looking at who is the most likely at finishing first in points, but instead at who has the best chances of being one of the elite. You can't win the league in the first round, but you can lose it. That is the reason for my ranking of Ezekiel Elliott and Christian Mccaffrey over Saquon Barkley, as I am looking to minimize risk, and Barkley has the most variance from last season (possibly new quarterback, losing top receiver, etc.). In the second to third round, I’m looking for guys with opportunity to jump into the elite. These are guys who are not yet elite, but have the ability and situation to be a workhorse back on a good offense, for example, Dalvin Cook or Aaron Jones. In the later rounds, I am combining my bench with safer picks that will likely give solid return, like Jordan Howard, or upside picks like David Montgomery or Kenyan Drake. Overall, though I draft for value, not for position, the value of top running backs influences every pick I make.
Three things are certain in life. Death, taxes, and elite running backs win fantasy championships. Six of the eight players most commonly on playoff rosters in fantasy were running backs. That does not mean it is impossible to win without one, or that you should spend all of your top picks on the position. It is just something to note when considering draft strategy.
So, first we must define what an elite running back is. Some say it is a “workhorse” back who gets all their teams carries and touches, but that doesn’t always apply. Just look at David Johnson last year, who surpassed 300 touches, but didn’t deliver that elite fantasy production you were looking for, averaging only fourteen points per game in half point per reception leagues. For me, an elite running back is one of those guys that you can count on for twenty points every week. There were eight running backs who achieved this average, or just below, last season, five of which played at least fourteen games. These were the “elite” backs you should be looking for throughout your whole draft.
The reason for their value is not the consistency or number of points, as quarterbacks surpass them in both categories. The reason is in the depth of the position. Having an elite running back gives you a significant weekly edge over an opponent, more so than an elite quarterback or wide receiver does. For example, the top quarterbacks last year in terms of start percentage (the percentage of time the player finished the week worth the start) were Patrick Mahomes (75%), Andrew Luck (68%) and Deshaun Watson (62%). At wide receiver, following Davante Adams at (87.5%), no one had above 75%. However the “elite” running backs nearly always are “worth the start”. Saquon Barkley and Christian Mccaffrey led the way (93.8%), with Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, and Alvin Kamara all above 80 percent, and along with Melvin Gordon (who would have surpassed 80 percent if not for injury), made up the elite tier of running backs last season. So, according to Matthew Berry, “At a fundamental level, the key to fantasy football success is minimizing risk on a weekly basis to give you the best odds to win,” and elite running backs are most greatly minimizing risk by finishing as starters nearly every week. The reason these running backs consistently finish at the top of their position is largely due to the lack of production around them. For an example, if you had the worse starting running back duo in a 12 team league (RB 23 and 24 in points per game), you would get about 26 points a week from the duo. Todd Gurley alone would have outscored the duo on a weekly basis. If you try the same with the receiver position, the 23rd and 24th receivers would have outscored the No.1 receiver by 8 points, showing the greater advantage your team gets from an elite back. To add to the value of the top running backs, there was a significant drop off after RB8 in pointer per game Kareem Huny, who finished with 20.9 PPR points per game, while RB9 Joe Mixon averaged just 17.4, a 3.5 point tier dropoff.
So, we have determined that having an elite running back is the most valuable thing you can have, so how you take that into account on draft day is up to you. As I said earlier, you do not need to draft a running back in the first round to get an elite one, nor do you even need an elite one to win. This philosophy is seen to a more extreme degree in the Zero RB strategy. The strategy focuses on building up wide receiver and getting an elite tight end in the early rounds. The idea stems from the fact that elite running backs are often hit or miss, as over the last ten seasons fewer than two of the previous season’s top 5 RBs finished in the top five the following year. Due to injuries and dependence on the rest of the offense, running backs are often difficult to predict, and the Zero RB strategy exploits this, allowing others to take the lottery ticket of an early running back, and instead taking more safe receivers. However, this strategy requires more skill and research. The strategy relies on you hitting on your late round fliers, coming away with steals like Nick Chubb, and James White last year, or Alvin Kamara the year before. For this year, I would target a combination of high upside backs who could get the starting job, like Carlos Hyde or Devin Singletary, with dependable pass-catching backs like Nyheim Hines or Jalen Richard, to ensure some safety at the position. It also requires activity on the waiver wire, as you will need the Phillip Lindsay’s of the world from last season. Overall, the strategy can have massive rewards, but comes at a major risk, and requires you to be researched and active throughout the year.
Another option is the opposite of this, considering the importance of the position, and therefore building up on it. Having an elite running back is the easiest route to success in fantasy, so why not take two or three shots at it in the early rounds. As explained earlier, there is risk in this strategy, but chances are you will get at least a solid starting running back tandem, and will not be left with scraps at the position. If choosing this strategy, develop a tiered running back ranking for the early rounds, and make sure you have receivers you like later in the draft.
Finally, there’s how I draft in general in fantasy, which is in the first four rounds, I will always take the best player available, regardless of position. Due to their importance, running backs are a priority in the first round, but I am willing to take a receiver if my top backs are off the board. In general though, my strategy for drafting running backs depends on the round. In the first round, I am not looking at who is the most likely at finishing first in points, but instead at who has the best chances of being one of the elite. You can't win the league in the first round, but you can lose it. That is the reason for my ranking of Ezekiel Elliott and Christian Mccaffrey over Saquon Barkley, as I am looking to minimize risk, and Barkley has the most variance from last season (possibly new quarterback, losing top receiver, etc.). In the second to third round, I’m looking for guys with opportunity to jump into the elite. These are guys who are not yet elite, but have the ability and situation to be a workhorse back on a good offense, for example, Dalvin Cook or Aaron Jones. In the later rounds, I am combining my bench with safer picks that will likely give solid return, like Jordan Howard, or upside picks like David Montgomery or Kenyan Drake. Overall, though I draft for value, not for position, the value of top running backs influences every pick I make.
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