Tight Ends I am Avoiding in 2019
Austin Hooper finished as the TE 6 last season, averaging just eight half-PPR points per game. After the top 5 or so guys, you really didn't want any tight ends starting every week for you. 22 tight ends averaged at least six half-PPR points per game. So, you could get similar production at tight end from plenty of guys on the waiver wire, and therefore, nearly all of the tight ends week to week production was replaceable by a streamer. So, why is this important? This year, there are six or so guys that are likely to be above replacement level, with a couple more who have the potential for more. If you take anything from this article, DO NOT reach for replacement level production. If you don't get one of the elite guys like Kelce or Ertz, or someone with that type of upside like O.J. Howard, it is not worth a mid-round pick for something similar to what you can get in the 15th round, or even off the waivers. With that in mind, a lot of these tight ends will finish around their ADP's, because at tight end, it is simply not difficult to finish inside the top 10. However, not all top 10 tight ends are created equal, and I am aiming for the upside of someone who could be above replacement level, which most of these guys don't have.
Zach Ertz (ADP: TE 2)
Ertz posted not only career highs in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns last season, but also broke the all time record for tight end receptions. Ertz is and will likely be a fantasy stud in 2019, and there is little doubt about that. However, my concern is that he is being drafted at his ceiling. To justify their current draft price, the big three tight ends will have to repeat their historic number last season, and once again be a significant advantage over the rest of the position. With less big play ability than Kelce and Kittle (11.0 career yards per reception), Ertz is dependent on volume to be elite last season (156 targets). With the addition of Desean Jackson, development of Dallas Goedert, and possible emergence of Miles Sanders as a pass-catcher, there is no way Ertz maintains his target share. Though he will likely finish as a top 5 tight end, Ertz is unlikely to return value on his early third round draft price.
Eric Ebron (ADP: TE 7)
However have a thing against tight ends who aren't good at football, and Ebron fits the bill. Despite catching thirteen touchdowns last season, Ebron was not the best tight end on his team. Jack Doyle played more snaps and had more targets than Ebron when healthy. Additionally, Ebron caught only 60% of his targets, among the lowest percentages in the league. That poor efficiency makes Ebron dependent on having the best touchdown rate in the league once again. Along with the return of Jack Doyle, the team brought in Parris Campbell and Devin Funchess, looking to spread the ball around even more. Therefore, Ebron's touchdowns will drop, a word that should be familiar to him.
Jared Cook (ADP: TE 8)
I can't believe I'm saying this, but moving from Derek Carr to Drew Brees is a downgrade. Cook, a forever league average replacement level tight end, broke out at the tender age of 31 in the fantasy friendly location of Oakland. For the first time in his career, Cook had triple digit targets, and for also for the first time in his career, actually produced something with his targets. Despite having a career catch percentage under 50%, Cook caught over 67% of his passes last season. As much as it does take someone truly special to catch 8% more of your targets from Derek Carr than Aaron Rodgers, given Cook's history, last year's efficiency was likely a fluke. Though he now has the extraordinarily efficient Drew Brees this season, his volume will take a massive step down, as last year, after the departure of Amari Cooper, he was literally the only Cook in the kitchen. In New Orleans, both Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are due for massive target shares in an offense that does not throw very often anymore, especially near the goal line (league leaders in red zone rushing percentage). With last season's production, and the new landing spot, Cook is a tempting mid-round pick, but the situation looks like massive bait.
Austin Hooper (ADP: TE 11)
Austin Hooper is a replacement level tight end. That is just what he is, and there are plenty of people being drafted behind him who have significantly more upside than Hooper. As discussed in the introduction, Hooper did finish as the sixth best fantasy tight end last season, but you don't want eight points per game from your tight end, or at least you don't want to pay for it. The problem I have with Hooper is that there is no room for improvement. Hooper reached a career high in targets, catches, yards, and touchdowns last season, but the Falcons were also extremely pass-heavy. With a healthy defense and running back, they will decrease in passing volume. Hooper could even decrease in targets with the emergence of Calvin Ridley, who many are expecting to see triple digit targets.
T.J. Hockenson (ADP: TE 12)
Hockenson will be a great player in the NFL. Just not this season. Over the past decade, there has been just one rookie tight end to finish as a TE1, which was Evan Engram. Engram was only able to produce when both Odell Beckham Jr and Sterling Shepard went down. Sure, if both Marvin Jones Jr. and Kenny Golladay go down, Hockenson will have value, but that can be said for just about any tight end in the league. Take your shots on exciting rookies at other positions, as it is no knock on Hockenson's talent to say it is extremely unlikely he has fantasy relevance in 2019.
Kyle Rudolph (ADP: TE 20)
Zach Ertz (ADP: TE 2)
Ertz posted not only career highs in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns last season, but also broke the all time record for tight end receptions. Ertz is and will likely be a fantasy stud in 2019, and there is little doubt about that. However, my concern is that he is being drafted at his ceiling. To justify their current draft price, the big three tight ends will have to repeat their historic number last season, and once again be a significant advantage over the rest of the position. With less big play ability than Kelce and Kittle (11.0 career yards per reception), Ertz is dependent on volume to be elite last season (156 targets). With the addition of Desean Jackson, development of Dallas Goedert, and possible emergence of Miles Sanders as a pass-catcher, there is no way Ertz maintains his target share. Though he will likely finish as a top 5 tight end, Ertz is unlikely to return value on his early third round draft price.
Eric Ebron (ADP: TE 7)
However have a thing against tight ends who aren't good at football, and Ebron fits the bill. Despite catching thirteen touchdowns last season, Ebron was not the best tight end on his team. Jack Doyle played more snaps and had more targets than Ebron when healthy. Additionally, Ebron caught only 60% of his targets, among the lowest percentages in the league. That poor efficiency makes Ebron dependent on having the best touchdown rate in the league once again. Along with the return of Jack Doyle, the team brought in Parris Campbell and Devin Funchess, looking to spread the ball around even more. Therefore, Ebron's touchdowns will drop, a word that should be familiar to him.
Jared Cook (ADP: TE 8)
I can't believe I'm saying this, but moving from Derek Carr to Drew Brees is a downgrade. Cook, a forever league average replacement level tight end, broke out at the tender age of 31 in the fantasy friendly location of Oakland. For the first time in his career, Cook had triple digit targets, and for also for the first time in his career, actually produced something with his targets. Despite having a career catch percentage under 50%, Cook caught over 67% of his passes last season. As much as it does take someone truly special to catch 8% more of your targets from Derek Carr than Aaron Rodgers, given Cook's history, last year's efficiency was likely a fluke. Though he now has the extraordinarily efficient Drew Brees this season, his volume will take a massive step down, as last year, after the departure of Amari Cooper, he was literally the only Cook in the kitchen. In New Orleans, both Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are due for massive target shares in an offense that does not throw very often anymore, especially near the goal line (league leaders in red zone rushing percentage). With last season's production, and the new landing spot, Cook is a tempting mid-round pick, but the situation looks like massive bait.
Austin Hooper (ADP: TE 11)
Austin Hooper is a replacement level tight end. That is just what he is, and there are plenty of people being drafted behind him who have significantly more upside than Hooper. As discussed in the introduction, Hooper did finish as the sixth best fantasy tight end last season, but you don't want eight points per game from your tight end, or at least you don't want to pay for it. The problem I have with Hooper is that there is no room for improvement. Hooper reached a career high in targets, catches, yards, and touchdowns last season, but the Falcons were also extremely pass-heavy. With a healthy defense and running back, they will decrease in passing volume. Hooper could even decrease in targets with the emergence of Calvin Ridley, who many are expecting to see triple digit targets.
T.J. Hockenson (ADP: TE 12)
Hockenson will be a great player in the NFL. Just not this season. Over the past decade, there has been just one rookie tight end to finish as a TE1, which was Evan Engram. Engram was only able to produce when both Odell Beckham Jr and Sterling Shepard went down. Sure, if both Marvin Jones Jr. and Kenny Golladay go down, Hockenson will have value, but that can be said for just about any tight end in the league. Take your shots on exciting rookies at other positions, as it is no knock on Hockenson's talent to say it is extremely unlikely he has fantasy relevance in 2019.
Kyle Rudolph (ADP: TE 20)
