Why you should "go big or go home" when drafting tight ends
*Please note the following is for 12 team, PPR leagues, but can apply to any league.
Tight ends have always been dominated by an elite few in fantasy football. For years, it was Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. They then passed the torch to Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. Last year, the era of Gronk came to an end, and three tight ends surpassed even the brightest of expectations, with record-breaking campaigns. These three tight ends could be the most valuable trio the league has ever seen at the position.
So, what makes these guys so valuable? The easy answer is production. No trio has ever scored more fantasy points in a single campaign. It’s as simple as that. This trio may be the most dominant in the position’s history. Zach Ertz broke the single season record for tight end receptions last season. Travis Kelce broke the record for receiving yards just hours before George Kittle surpassed him. All three would have finished in the top 15 at WIDE RECEIVER last season. They are simply fantasy superstars. However, the value of these tight ends goes further. We have seen years where the top tight ends put up similar numbers on a weekly basis. Just look at 2015, where Jordan Reed, Delaine Walker, and Rob Gronkowski all averaged more points per week than Kittle did in 2018. However, the key word is weekly. None of the 2015 elites played all sixteen games. This is nothing abnormal, after all, tight ends are one of the most injury prone positions in the league. However, last season, Kittle, Ertz, and Kelce all played sixteen games. The ability of this trio to stay on the field in 2018 is not an outlier. Since 2014, all three (note Kittle joined the league in 2017) have played at least fourteen games every season. So, the elite trio of tight ends entering 2019 is the most productive and reliable we have seen at the position.
Then, of course, you can’t discuss tight ends without mentioning the dreaded position drop off. Tight ends are like modern artists, there are a couple great ones, but oh boy it’s bad after that. Owning a tight end outside of the elite is, well, frustrating to say the least. Let’s take a look at a certain fantasy tight end’s 2018 campaign. This player averaged a respectable ten PPR points per game. He reached career high totals with 71 receptions, 660 yards, and four touchdowns. So, who was this player? The answer is Austin Hooper, who finished as the TE6 last season. That’s right, those numbers represented an average starting fantasy tight end. Yet, you didn't want Austin Hooper in your starting lineup last season. In fives games, he failed to score more than five PPR fantasy points. He scored fewer fantasy points than Zay Jones and Mohamed Sanu. The top tight ends, Kelce, Ertz, and Kittle averaged 18, 17, and 16 points per game respectively. The difference between the TE6 and TE3 was six points per game. while the difference between TE6 and TE12 was only two. The truth is, tight end is a wasteland outside of the elite. Though there are often somewhat solid performers outside of the elite, for example Eric Ebron last year, this was due to an unpredictable inflated touchdown rate. Ebron, who finished as the TE4, had thirteen touchdowns on only 66 receptions, the best rate among players with over fifty receptions in the league. Even with this, Ebron still scored three fewer points than Kittle per game. What makes the position even more thin is the injuries. Both O.J. Howard and Evan Engram were somewhat productive last season when healthy, but both played fewer than twelve games. This tendency of tight ends to get injured is not abnormal. Over the past five years, an average of five the top twelve tight ends on a points per game basis played fourteen or fewer games. So, outside of the big three, the position is a game of touchdown dependency, injury risk, and less than ideal production, making it a game I don’t want to play on draft day.
The problem, when it comes to avoiding this game on draft day, is that it is easier said than done. With immense value comes immense draft price, and the ADP of the big three are going in the first three rounds. You will be locking down the tight end position at the expense of a starting receiver or running back, which is a difficult decision to make. For me, drafting one of the big three is worth the price, depending on who else is available. In the game of what’s most likely to happen, it is most likely that all of the three, especially Kelce, provide a positional advantage greater than the running back and receiver options around them. As explained earlier, the tier drop behind them is so steep that it is worth the pick, but that does not mean it is wrong to avoid them. So, what do you do if you don’t end up with any of the three? Though three tight ends have established themselves as elite, there are others who could break into the tier. The person who wins the position is not the one who gets the elite positional advantage, but the one who gets it at a lower cost. My next tier of tight ends, O.J. Howard, Hunter Henry, and Evan Engram, all have the potential to be elite, and are worth a mid-round draft pick. After that, I am waiting until the end of the draft for my tight end. Though there are guys that I like in the third tier such as Vance Mcdonald, the chances he or anybody outside of the top six significantly outperforms other late round or waiver wire options like Delaine Walker or Trey Burton is slim. As stated earlier, there were only 5 tight ends last season that were worth a draft pick, and the difference between the rest was so slim it would be better to stream.The third through sixth best tight ends last year were all drafted in the 12th round or later, so a late round shot might just pan out as well. So, in that case, build up on your running back or wide receiver, and live with the unreliable production at tight end.
Tight ends have always been dominated by an elite few in fantasy football. For years, it was Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. They then passed the torch to Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. Last year, the era of Gronk came to an end, and three tight ends surpassed even the brightest of expectations, with record-breaking campaigns. These three tight ends could be the most valuable trio the league has ever seen at the position.
So, what makes these guys so valuable? The easy answer is production. No trio has ever scored more fantasy points in a single campaign. It’s as simple as that. This trio may be the most dominant in the position’s history. Zach Ertz broke the single season record for tight end receptions last season. Travis Kelce broke the record for receiving yards just hours before George Kittle surpassed him. All three would have finished in the top 15 at WIDE RECEIVER last season. They are simply fantasy superstars. However, the value of these tight ends goes further. We have seen years where the top tight ends put up similar numbers on a weekly basis. Just look at 2015, where Jordan Reed, Delaine Walker, and Rob Gronkowski all averaged more points per week than Kittle did in 2018. However, the key word is weekly. None of the 2015 elites played all sixteen games. This is nothing abnormal, after all, tight ends are one of the most injury prone positions in the league. However, last season, Kittle, Ertz, and Kelce all played sixteen games. The ability of this trio to stay on the field in 2018 is not an outlier. Since 2014, all three (note Kittle joined the league in 2017) have played at least fourteen games every season. So, the elite trio of tight ends entering 2019 is the most productive and reliable we have seen at the position.
Then, of course, you can’t discuss tight ends without mentioning the dreaded position drop off. Tight ends are like modern artists, there are a couple great ones, but oh boy it’s bad after that. Owning a tight end outside of the elite is, well, frustrating to say the least. Let’s take a look at a certain fantasy tight end’s 2018 campaign. This player averaged a respectable ten PPR points per game. He reached career high totals with 71 receptions, 660 yards, and four touchdowns. So, who was this player? The answer is Austin Hooper, who finished as the TE6 last season. That’s right, those numbers represented an average starting fantasy tight end. Yet, you didn't want Austin Hooper in your starting lineup last season. In fives games, he failed to score more than five PPR fantasy points. He scored fewer fantasy points than Zay Jones and Mohamed Sanu. The top tight ends, Kelce, Ertz, and Kittle averaged 18, 17, and 16 points per game respectively. The difference between the TE6 and TE3 was six points per game. while the difference between TE6 and TE12 was only two. The truth is, tight end is a wasteland outside of the elite. Though there are often somewhat solid performers outside of the elite, for example Eric Ebron last year, this was due to an unpredictable inflated touchdown rate. Ebron, who finished as the TE4, had thirteen touchdowns on only 66 receptions, the best rate among players with over fifty receptions in the league. Even with this, Ebron still scored three fewer points than Kittle per game. What makes the position even more thin is the injuries. Both O.J. Howard and Evan Engram were somewhat productive last season when healthy, but both played fewer than twelve games. This tendency of tight ends to get injured is not abnormal. Over the past five years, an average of five the top twelve tight ends on a points per game basis played fourteen or fewer games. So, outside of the big three, the position is a game of touchdown dependency, injury risk, and less than ideal production, making it a game I don’t want to play on draft day.
The problem, when it comes to avoiding this game on draft day, is that it is easier said than done. With immense value comes immense draft price, and the ADP of the big three are going in the first three rounds. You will be locking down the tight end position at the expense of a starting receiver or running back, which is a difficult decision to make. For me, drafting one of the big three is worth the price, depending on who else is available. In the game of what’s most likely to happen, it is most likely that all of the three, especially Kelce, provide a positional advantage greater than the running back and receiver options around them. As explained earlier, the tier drop behind them is so steep that it is worth the pick, but that does not mean it is wrong to avoid them. So, what do you do if you don’t end up with any of the three? Though three tight ends have established themselves as elite, there are others who could break into the tier. The person who wins the position is not the one who gets the elite positional advantage, but the one who gets it at a lower cost. My next tier of tight ends, O.J. Howard, Hunter Henry, and Evan Engram, all have the potential to be elite, and are worth a mid-round draft pick. After that, I am waiting until the end of the draft for my tight end. Though there are guys that I like in the third tier such as Vance Mcdonald, the chances he or anybody outside of the top six significantly outperforms other late round or waiver wire options like Delaine Walker or Trey Burton is slim. As stated earlier, there were only 5 tight ends last season that were worth a draft pick, and the difference between the rest was so slim it would be better to stream.The third through sixth best tight ends last year were all drafted in the 12th round or later, so a late round shot might just pan out as well. So, in that case, build up on your running back or wide receiver, and live with the unreliable production at tight end.
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