Tight Ends I am Targeting in 2019
Tight ends are like modern artists, there are a few great ones, but oh boy it's bad after that. The dreaded tier drop at tight end was always massive, but last season, like Eli Manning's inaccuracy, it reached new heights. The difference between the TE 3 and TE 6 was 95 PPR fantasy points. Having elite production at tight end can give you a significant weekly positional advantage over almost your whole league. Unlike the quarterback position, only a few tight ends will give you high-end reliable production, so claiming one of those few (for the right price) should be a priority. With that in mind, here are the tight ends I am targeting at their current ADP.
Travis Kelce (ADP: TE 1):
Regression. You will hear this word from every analyst when they discuss the Chiefs offense, and rightfully so. The Chiefs offense as a whole reached extraordinary efficiency last season that is unlikely to repeat. However, the more you look at Kelce's numbers, the more it becomes clear that he should be an exception to this. While many analysts are arguing that Kelce will need to repeat last season's production to warrant first round consideration, I don't see any reason why he can't. Despite Patrick Mahomes throwing no-look 50 yard passes on the run across his body, Kelce's efficiency did not improve last season. His yards per target and catch percentage were both below his career average. The only reason his numbers were higher was because he got more targets, and with an atrocious defense and elite quarterback, it is unlikely the Chiefs are going to decrease their passing volume. Kelce would have finished as a top 8 WIDE RECEIVER last season, and he has shown durability and consistency over the past three seasons. He is well worth a late first round pick.
O.J. Howard (ADP: TE 4): "I really like that football player named O.J." said no one ever. In all seriousness, Howard has all the tools to become the next elite fantasy tight end. It isn't bold to say Howard is bordering elite already because last season, when on the field, he was the TE 5 in points per game. And that was his second season in the NFL. Though there are some exceptions like Zach Ertz, most elite tight ends are physical specimens whose combination of speed and size is unarguable. Howard more than fits the bill as he is 6'6, the same height as Rob Gronkowski, and ran a 4.51 40 yard dash (Gronk ran a 4.68). He has applied this physical dominance on the field, with over 16 yards per reception in both of his NFL seasons. With the talent and production, the only factor left is opportunity. With the loss of Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson, the Buccaneers have over 170 targets available this season, and to receive those they brought in... Breshad Perriman. Though Godwin and Evans will get their share, the offense will be among the most pass-heavy in the league, so Howard could see a massive uptick in volume. With Bruce Arians at the helm, they should be more effective as well, making Howard primed for a breakout.
Vance Mcdonald (ADP: TE 9):
Speaking of physical specimens, Vance Mcdonald is a monster. If you need proof, search "Vance Mcdonald obliterates Chris Conte," on YouTube, watch the video, watch it again, put on your white pants (this may be out of order), and then watch it three more times. That video alone should be enough for you to draft him, but if not, here's a bit more. Last season, though Vance had only 72 targets, he was the TE 10 in fantasy. The loss of Antonio Brown and Jesse James leaves 200 targets on the table, and though the team will pass less and likely be less efficient, this still leaves opportunity for Vance to see increased volume, which he has been productive with in the past (7.8 yards per target).
Trey Burton (TE: 15)
Though finishing as the TE 7, Burton disappointed many fantasy owners including myself who thought he could break into the elite tier of fantasy tight ends. This season, Burton is the definition of a post-hype sleeper. Going extremely late in drafts, we saw Burton's floor last season, which is the TE 7. Though his production last season was replaceable, he could take significant strides this season in his second season in the offense. As we have seen with teams like the Falcons in the past, it often takes a season for a team to adjust to a new play-caller. The offense showed flashes throughout last season, but with an elite defense, were not called upon to perform consistently. This season, expecting the defense to regress, the offense and passing game will have to step-up, and Trubisky should improve heading into his third season. With higher passing volume, Burton, who has been efficient with his targets in the past (68.4% catch rate), could be in line for his breakout season, at a much more appealing cost.
Mark Andrews (ADP: TE 18):
Rookie tight ends don't produce. Over the past decade, the only top ten fantasy tight end was Evan Engram. Yet, Andrews impressed in his limited time last season, with more yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points than George Kittle's rookie year, with fewer targets. Yes, I know his quarterback literally cannot throw, but Andrews was better over the second half of the season, when Jackson was the quarterback. He also produced while starting only three games, and splitting snaps with Hayden Hurst, who is currently injured and was outperformed by Andrews. Assuming the job is his, and if Jackson's arm takes a step forward, Andrews could be in for a breakout year.
Jordan Reed (ADP: TE 19):
I know he's injury prone. But the truth is, I don't really care. At this price, that really shouldn't matter. When on the field, Reed has been a fantasy star throughout his career. Though he may not have the upside he did earlier in his career, where he finished as the TE 1 in points per game in both 2015 and 2016. Though last season was statistically unimpressive for Reed, he still showed his explosiveness, with 10.3 yards per reception (10.2 career average). The team went through four starting quarterbacks last season, and though Case Keenum and Dwayne Haskins are likely nothing special, anything is an improvement from Mark Sanchez. Reed will produce when healthy, so take those quarters and then stream the position when he goes down.
Travis Kelce (ADP: TE 1):
Regression. You will hear this word from every analyst when they discuss the Chiefs offense, and rightfully so. The Chiefs offense as a whole reached extraordinary efficiency last season that is unlikely to repeat. However, the more you look at Kelce's numbers, the more it becomes clear that he should be an exception to this. While many analysts are arguing that Kelce will need to repeat last season's production to warrant first round consideration, I don't see any reason why he can't. Despite Patrick Mahomes throwing no-look 50 yard passes on the run across his body, Kelce's efficiency did not improve last season. His yards per target and catch percentage were both below his career average. The only reason his numbers were higher was because he got more targets, and with an atrocious defense and elite quarterback, it is unlikely the Chiefs are going to decrease their passing volume. Kelce would have finished as a top 8 WIDE RECEIVER last season, and he has shown durability and consistency over the past three seasons. He is well worth a late first round pick.
O.J. Howard (ADP: TE 4): "I really like that football player named O.J." said no one ever. In all seriousness, Howard has all the tools to become the next elite fantasy tight end. It isn't bold to say Howard is bordering elite already because last season, when on the field, he was the TE 5 in points per game. And that was his second season in the NFL. Though there are some exceptions like Zach Ertz, most elite tight ends are physical specimens whose combination of speed and size is unarguable. Howard more than fits the bill as he is 6'6, the same height as Rob Gronkowski, and ran a 4.51 40 yard dash (Gronk ran a 4.68). He has applied this physical dominance on the field, with over 16 yards per reception in both of his NFL seasons. With the talent and production, the only factor left is opportunity. With the loss of Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson, the Buccaneers have over 170 targets available this season, and to receive those they brought in... Breshad Perriman. Though Godwin and Evans will get their share, the offense will be among the most pass-heavy in the league, so Howard could see a massive uptick in volume. With Bruce Arians at the helm, they should be more effective as well, making Howard primed for a breakout.
Vance Mcdonald (ADP: TE 9):
Speaking of physical specimens, Vance Mcdonald is a monster. If you need proof, search "Vance Mcdonald obliterates Chris Conte," on YouTube, watch the video, watch it again, put on your white pants (this may be out of order), and then watch it three more times. That video alone should be enough for you to draft him, but if not, here's a bit more. Last season, though Vance had only 72 targets, he was the TE 10 in fantasy. The loss of Antonio Brown and Jesse James leaves 200 targets on the table, and though the team will pass less and likely be less efficient, this still leaves opportunity for Vance to see increased volume, which he has been productive with in the past (7.8 yards per target).
Trey Burton (TE: 15)
Though finishing as the TE 7, Burton disappointed many fantasy owners including myself who thought he could break into the elite tier of fantasy tight ends. This season, Burton is the definition of a post-hype sleeper. Going extremely late in drafts, we saw Burton's floor last season, which is the TE 7. Though his production last season was replaceable, he could take significant strides this season in his second season in the offense. As we have seen with teams like the Falcons in the past, it often takes a season for a team to adjust to a new play-caller. The offense showed flashes throughout last season, but with an elite defense, were not called upon to perform consistently. This season, expecting the defense to regress, the offense and passing game will have to step-up, and Trubisky should improve heading into his third season. With higher passing volume, Burton, who has been efficient with his targets in the past (68.4% catch rate), could be in line for his breakout season, at a much more appealing cost.
Mark Andrews (ADP: TE 18):
Rookie tight ends don't produce. Over the past decade, the only top ten fantasy tight end was Evan Engram. Yet, Andrews impressed in his limited time last season, with more yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points than George Kittle's rookie year, with fewer targets. Yes, I know his quarterback literally cannot throw, but Andrews was better over the second half of the season, when Jackson was the quarterback. He also produced while starting only three games, and splitting snaps with Hayden Hurst, who is currently injured and was outperformed by Andrews. Assuming the job is his, and if Jackson's arm takes a step forward, Andrews could be in for a breakout year.
Jordan Reed (ADP: TE 19):
I know he's injury prone. But the truth is, I don't really care. At this price, that really shouldn't matter. When on the field, Reed has been a fantasy star throughout his career. Though he may not have the upside he did earlier in his career, where he finished as the TE 1 in points per game in both 2015 and 2016. Though last season was statistically unimpressive for Reed, he still showed his explosiveness, with 10.3 yards per reception (10.2 career average). The team went through four starting quarterbacks last season, and though Case Keenum and Dwayne Haskins are likely nothing special, anything is an improvement from Mark Sanchez. Reed will produce when healthy, so take those quarters and then stream the position when he goes down.
