Why receivers are the unsung heroes of fantasy football
*Please note the following is for 12 team, PPR leagues, but can apply to any league.
Receivers have often made way for running backs and quarterbacks in early rounds of fantasy drafts. After all, an elite running back is the most valuable asset in fantasy. However, that should not diminish the value of elite receivers, as especially in recent years, they have been the unsung heroes of fantasy. With running backs being the fancy new car in the early rounds, that could be amazing but could also break down, elite receivers are that good old reliable Honda, where you know what you are getting for an often discounted price.
Elite receivers are as safe as it gets in the early rounds of drafts. Last season, ten of the top twelve receivers drafted finished in the top fifteen at the position, the two exceptions being the injuries of Odell Beckham Jr. and A.J. Green. Also, of the ten who played at least thirteen games, all but Keenan Allen (drafted as WR 6, finished as WR12) returned value (finished a maximum three spots lower than where they were drafted). Of the top twelve running backs drafted, only eight finished in the top fifteen at the position, and only six returned value. So, despite what many think, receivers have established themselves as the safer option at the top of your board. You know what you are getting from longtime elite guys like Julio Jones (1400 plus yards in five straight years) and Antonio Brown (1200 plus yards and 8 plus touchdowns in six straight seasons), while as seen from David Johnson and Dalvin Cook last season, running backs can't say the same.
Another argument against early round receivers is that running backs are more consistent on a week to week basis. This argument has statistical backing, as we have seen players like Mike Evans and A.J. Green have terrific fantasy seasons, yet due to inconsistent usage and difficult matchups, be extremely inconsistent. Great examples are Tyreek Hill (only time he will ever be called a good example) and Michael Thomas last season, who finished third and fifth respectively in fantasy points among receivers inPPR, were only considered “start-worthy” by ESPN’s consistency ratings in only nine games. In comparison, the top five running backs were all considered starters in at least thirteen games. However, this inconsistency in receiver can be avoided, especially in early rounds. For example, DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams (my top two receivers this year), both averaged over twenty points per game, and were considered starts twelve and fourteen times respectively, right up with the elite running backs. Similar to the elite running backs, the duo did not have any stiff games, or games where they ranked among the worst at their position. Both Adams and Hopkins had higher consistency ratings than any running back according to ESPN. Overall, though the top running backs still have a slight edge in terms of week to week production, team’s increasing tendency to pass makes certain elite receivers surprisingly consistent, making their production well-worth a first round pick.
Elite wide receivers are also extremely valuable because they are difficult to find later in the draft. Almost every year, some running back will emerge into the elite tier due to injury or production. This can be seen in James Conner last season, Alvin Kamara the year before, etc. However, at receiver, though there will be breakouts and sleepers, as seen by Tyler Boyd, Tyler Lockett, and Kenny Golladay last season, it is extremely rare to find elite production past the early rounds of the draft (none of the above finished as a WR 1). Out of the top ten receivers in fantasy points last season, none were drafted outside of the top twenty. Due to fewer injuries to established wideouts, and talent being the main indicator of fantasy production at receiver (while opportunity is at running back), it is simply not feasible to find elite production in later rounds at receiver, making the early round guys more valuable.
So, there are arguments for both top running backs and receivers in the early rounds, which leads into how I approach it. To me, it comes down to tiers. I have a tier of five elite running backs, who have shown enough that despite high risk, the weekly positional advantage they can give is high enough that I will take them over any receiver. However, after those elite five, I have no problem pivoting to receiver, and getting as close to guaranteed production as I can get with Adams or Hopkins. However, if you need that elite running back on your team, there are at least eleven running backs with a good shot at being elite (check my tiered rankings), so all of those guys are worthy of first round consideration. In the second to fourth round round, though balance between running backs and receivers is ideal, I still go with my top player available, regardless of position. If that player is a receiver it is likely an upside guy who can become elite like Stefon Diggs or Amari Cooper, or a safe player that gives me predictable production like Keenan Allen or Brandin Cooks.
Receivers have often made way for running backs and quarterbacks in early rounds of fantasy drafts. After all, an elite running back is the most valuable asset in fantasy. However, that should not diminish the value of elite receivers, as especially in recent years, they have been the unsung heroes of fantasy. With running backs being the fancy new car in the early rounds, that could be amazing but could also break down, elite receivers are that good old reliable Honda, where you know what you are getting for an often discounted price.
Elite receivers are as safe as it gets in the early rounds of drafts. Last season, ten of the top twelve receivers drafted finished in the top fifteen at the position, the two exceptions being the injuries of Odell Beckham Jr. and A.J. Green. Also, of the ten who played at least thirteen games, all but Keenan Allen (drafted as WR 6, finished as WR12) returned value (finished a maximum three spots lower than where they were drafted). Of the top twelve running backs drafted, only eight finished in the top fifteen at the position, and only six returned value. So, despite what many think, receivers have established themselves as the safer option at the top of your board. You know what you are getting from longtime elite guys like Julio Jones (1400 plus yards in five straight years) and Antonio Brown (1200 plus yards and 8 plus touchdowns in six straight seasons), while as seen from David Johnson and Dalvin Cook last season, running backs can't say the same.
Another argument against early round receivers is that running backs are more consistent on a week to week basis. This argument has statistical backing, as we have seen players like Mike Evans and A.J. Green have terrific fantasy seasons, yet due to inconsistent usage and difficult matchups, be extremely inconsistent. Great examples are Tyreek Hill (only time he will ever be called a good example) and Michael Thomas last season, who finished third and fifth respectively in fantasy points among receivers inPPR, were only considered “start-worthy” by ESPN’s consistency ratings in only nine games. In comparison, the top five running backs were all considered starters in at least thirteen games. However, this inconsistency in receiver can be avoided, especially in early rounds. For example, DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams (my top two receivers this year), both averaged over twenty points per game, and were considered starts twelve and fourteen times respectively, right up with the elite running backs. Similar to the elite running backs, the duo did not have any stiff games, or games where they ranked among the worst at their position. Both Adams and Hopkins had higher consistency ratings than any running back according to ESPN. Overall, though the top running backs still have a slight edge in terms of week to week production, team’s increasing tendency to pass makes certain elite receivers surprisingly consistent, making their production well-worth a first round pick.
Elite wide receivers are also extremely valuable because they are difficult to find later in the draft. Almost every year, some running back will emerge into the elite tier due to injury or production. This can be seen in James Conner last season, Alvin Kamara the year before, etc. However, at receiver, though there will be breakouts and sleepers, as seen by Tyler Boyd, Tyler Lockett, and Kenny Golladay last season, it is extremely rare to find elite production past the early rounds of the draft (none of the above finished as a WR 1). Out of the top ten receivers in fantasy points last season, none were drafted outside of the top twenty. Due to fewer injuries to established wideouts, and talent being the main indicator of fantasy production at receiver (while opportunity is at running back), it is simply not feasible to find elite production in later rounds at receiver, making the early round guys more valuable.
So, there are arguments for both top running backs and receivers in the early rounds, which leads into how I approach it. To me, it comes down to tiers. I have a tier of five elite running backs, who have shown enough that despite high risk, the weekly positional advantage they can give is high enough that I will take them over any receiver. However, after those elite five, I have no problem pivoting to receiver, and getting as close to guaranteed production as I can get with Adams or Hopkins. However, if you need that elite running back on your team, there are at least eleven running backs with a good shot at being elite (check my tiered rankings), so all of those guys are worthy of first round consideration. In the second to fourth round round, though balance between running backs and receivers is ideal, I still go with my top player available, regardless of position. If that player is a receiver it is likely an upside guy who can become elite like Stefon Diggs or Amari Cooper, or a safe player that gives me predictable production like Keenan Allen or Brandin Cooks.
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